This article is the first of a 5-part series covering the Real World Risk Institute’s 1-week mini-course on Real World Risk, held in NYC. There’s statistics, complex systems theory, and strong opinions ahead. I’ve learned far more than I can adequately represent here, so these will more or less be my raw notes.

If you want to better understand risk and decision making under uncertainty, then buckle up! Or go straight to the source and save yourself a hop :)

Table of Contents

Part 1: We Don’t Know Nothin’ (you are here)

Part 2: Complex Systems Need Stressors

Part 3: Representative Agents


Hi Adam!

You can read about my personal introduction to Resilience Engineering at a week-long intensive workshop in Sweden here: https://ballpointscimitar.medium.com/hf-day-1-first-and-second-stories-5ff293988c7d

Alternatively, the intro on the REA website is a great place to start: https://www.resilience-engineering-association.org/resources/where-do-i-start/

The intro was written by another techie named Lorin, with whom I interact regularly as part of the https://www.learningfromincidents.io/ community.

Tweet me at @101010lund and I can connect you to more folks involved in RE or other RWRI alumni.


Listen to this funk-tion while you read

Attempting to model complex things is fraught with peril. I’m going to explain my understanding of one method for doing so called Functional Resonance Analysis (FRAM), introduced by Professor Erik Hollnagel some years ago and described in this book. I’m writing to an audience not already steeped in the sort of safety research fields where Prof. Hollnagel made his name. It’s also meant to be informative, not exhaustively (or performatively) rigorous.

Shall we see if it’s a useful way of looking at our ever-more-complex world?

This is Part 2. The other parts will…


www.functionalresonance.com
Care for a song while you read?

Attempting to model complex things is fraught with peril. I’m going to explain my understanding of one method for doing so called Functional Resonance Analysis (FRAM), introduced by Professor Erik Hollnagel some years ago and described in this book. I’m writing to an audience not already steeped in the sort of safety research fields where Prof. Hollnagel made his name. It’s also meant to be informative, not exhaustively (or performatively) rigorous.

Shall we see if it’s a useful way of looking at our ever-more-complex world?

This is part 1. Other parts will be…


I’m deconstructing the uncertainties in life, which are decidedly not like a dice game.

Hello all.

Just wanted to let you know that I’ve begun a weekly newsletter comprised of links to interesting content. If you find what I write here interesting, you will probably find the things I read compelling as well.

You can read or subscribe to the newsletter here.

I’ll still be writing articles here, of course. Next up will be something about the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), which I’m currently evaluating for use at my day job (and more generally).

My studies continue, and I hope to give more detailed updates/results soon.

Thanks for checking in

It was a year of deep study and contemplation. 2020 will take things further.

A box of farewell cookies
A box of farewell cookies
They were pretty great interns

Human Factors, System Safety, and Resilience

I opened the year by attending a workshop at Lund University entitled Critical Thinking in Safety. My objective was to more deeply understand how failures and outages come about in software systems and what to do about them. At work (Microsoft) this topic was one of my main concerns, as I was involved in shaping the policies and methods teams were expected to use to improve the reliability of their services. I had done a study on outage pattern analysis the year before, without satisfying results…


This article is the last of a 5-part series covering the Real World Risk Institute’s 1-week mini-course on Real World Risk, held in NYC. There’s statistics, complex systems theory, and strong opinions ahead. I’ve learned far more than I can adequately represent here, so these will more or less be my raw notes. You can find Part 1 and a Table of Contents here.

Machine Learning and Computation

There’s a section in Nassim’s Technical Incerto on ML. Sigmoid functions don’t capture fat tails well at all. Fortunately, ReLu functions seem to do a bit better and they are becoming more popular. The softplus…


This article is the fourth of a 5-part series covering the Real World Risk Institute’s 1-week mini-course on Real World Risk, held in NYC. There’s statistics, complex systems theory, and strong opinions ahead. I’ve learned far more than I can adequately represent here, so these will more or less be my raw notes. You can find Part 1 and a Table of Contents here.

Complexity is synonymous with unintended consequences

The following notes are based on a guest lecture by Andrea Fontanari. I’ll try not to butcher his message.

Extreme Value Theory (EVT)

Statistics = data + assumptions.

The point of EVT is…


This article is the third of a 5-part series covering the Real World Risk Institute’s 1-week mini-course on Real World Risk, held in NYC. There’s statistics, complex systems theory, and strong opinions ahead. I’ve learned far more than I can adequately represent here, so these will more or less be my raw notes. You can find Part 1 and a Table of Contents here.

The first bit of Day 3 is courtesy of guest lecturer Arie Haziza, who does Catastrophic Risk Analytics.

When dealing with catastrophes, here are some rules of thumb:

  • Model what can be modeled
  • Don’t lie…

Tanner Lund

I seek erudition. Currently a Software Engineer @ Adobe. https://www.buymeacoffee.com/101010lund Read my newsletter: https://rollthebones.substack.com/

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